Covid Report for Family

Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

• This page shows COVID data broken down into regions that affect our family. It pulls from publicly available raw data from the NY Times, which is reported daily. It’s on a one-day lag, so when you see this report, the most recent day included will be that reported the day prior.
• The table of contents above summarizes the major sections and can be used to jump to those sections.
• Each major section is then divided into tabs to allow you to more easily shuffle between geographies and metrics.
  • If you open on your phone, I don’t believe the tabs will work, so you’ll just see the page as one long, continuous document.
• More detailed descriptions and context can be found in each section.

Growth rates

Heat maps

• The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
• The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
• The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
• The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
  • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
  • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

• This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
  • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
• Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
  • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total cases can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
  • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

• This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
  • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
• Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
  • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total deaths can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
  • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

• This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
• For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
  • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)

State	Cases Per Million
New York	12,939
New Jersey	10,401
Massachusetts	5,977
Connecticut	5,710
Louisiana	5,346
Rhode Island	5,191
District of Columbia	4,389
Michigan	3,297
Delaware	3,009
Pennsylvania	2,763
Illinois	2,608
Maryland	2,347
South Dakota	1,983
Colorado	1,814
Georgia	1,807
Indiana	1,796
Washington	1,621
Mississippi	1,584
Vermont	1,310
Florida	1,297
Nevada	1,278
Ohio	1,174
Iowa	1,154
Virginia	1,128
New Hampshire	1,096
Alabama	1,086
Tennessee	1,074
Utah	1,029
New Mexico	988
Missouri	967
Idaho	928
California	907
South Carolina	894
Nebraska	892
North Dakota	845
Wisconsin	793
Arkansas	749
Kansas	725
Texas	722
Arizona	721
Kentucky	714
Oklahoma	709
North Carolina	662
Maine	660
Wyoming	556
West Virginia	518
Oregon	474
Minnesota	455
Alaska	446
Hawaii	409
Montana	408
Puerto Rico	286
American Samoa	NA
Guam	NA
Northern Mariana Islands	NA
Virgin Islands	NA

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

State	New Cases Per Million
New Jersey	411
Rhode Island	317
Connecticut	262
New York	256
Massachusetts	233
District of Columbia	204
Delaware	134
Iowa	119
Maryland	103
Illinois	102
Ohio	99
Pennsylvania	94
Louisiana	91
Mississippi	83
South Dakota	80
Michigan	74
Indiana	72
Georgia	68
Nebraska	65
Virginia	61
Colorado	58
Arkansas	53
North Dakota	50
New Mexico	43
California	42
Alabama	41
Utah	37
Florida	36
Kentucky	36
New Hampshire	36
Tennessee	34
Kansas	33
Nevada	33
North Carolina	25
Arizona	24
Wisconsin	24
Missouri	23
South Carolina	23
Texas	23
Washington	23
Minnesota	20
Oklahoma	19
West Virginia	19
Idaho	15
Oregon	12
Maine	10
Vermont	8
Wyoming	7
Alaska	6
Montana	3
Hawaii	2
Puerto Rico	-21
American Samoa	NA
Guam	NA
Northern Mariana Islands	NA
Virgin Islands	NA

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)

State	Deaths Per Million
New York	762
New Jersey	535
Connecticut	399
Louisiana	302
Massachusetts	284
Michigan	270
Rhode Island	161
District of Columbia	158
Pennsylvania	126
Illinois	116
Maryland	96
Indiana	93
Washington	89
Colorado	84
Delaware	84
Georgia	76
Vermont	64
Mississippi	61
Nevada	52
Ohio	47
Oklahoma	41
Wisconsin	41
Florida	40
Kentucky	38
Virginia	38
Alabama	37
Kansas	36
Missouri	36
California	33
New Hampshire	30
New Mexico	30
Arizona	29
Idaho	28
Minnesota	28
Iowa	26
Maine	26
South Carolina	26
Tennessee	24
North Carolina	20
Nebraska	19
Texas	19
Oregon	18
North Dakota	17
Arkansas	14
West Virginia	14
Puerto Rico	13
Montana	11
Wyoming	10
Alaska	9
South Dakota	9
Utah	9
Hawaii	8
American Samoa	NA
Guam	NA
Northern Mariana Islands	NA
Virgin Islands	NA

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

State	New Deaths Per Million
Connecticut	31
New Jersey	25
New York	25
Massachusetts	19
Michigan	13
Pennsylvania	12
Rhode Island	10
District of Columbia	9
Louisiana	9
Maryland	6
Delaware	5
Illinois	5
Colorado	4
Georgia	4
Indiana	4
Mississippi	3
Ohio	3
Alabama	2
Kansas	2
Kentucky	2
Minnesota	2
Oklahoma	2
Virginia	2
Washington	2
Wyoming	2
Arizona	1
California	1
Florida	1
Idaho	1
Missouri	1
Nebraska	1
New Mexico	1
North Carolina	1
North Dakota	1
South Carolina	1
Vermont	1
West Virginia	1
Wisconsin	1
Alaska	0
Arkansas	0
Hawaii	0
Iowa	0
Maine	0
Montana	0
Nevada	0
New Hampshire	0
Oregon	0
South Dakota	0
Tennessee	0
Texas	0
Utah	0
Puerto Rico	-1
American Samoa	NA
Guam	NA
Northern Mariana Islands	NA
Virgin Islands	NA

Counties

• This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
  • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
• In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

County	State	Cases Per Million	Raw Ranking	Percentile
New York	New York	85,550	1	99
Lincoln	Arkansas	34,014	2	99
Marion	Ohio	32,753	3	99
Rockland	New York	29,369	4	99
Pickaway	Ohio	27,969	5	99
Davidson	Tennessee	2,789	186	94
Richland	South Carolina	1,657	399	87
Pierce	Washington	1,354	500	84
York	South Carolina	577	1184	62
Orange	California	532	1262	59

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

County	State	Deaths Per Million	Raw Ranking	Percentile
New York	New York	6,325	1	99
Randolph	Georgia	2,361	2	99
Terrell	Georgia	2,110	3	99
Nassau	New York	1,265	4	99
Dougherty	Georgia	1,171	5	99
Pierce	Washington	40	685	78
Richland	South Carolina	34	770	75
Davidson	Tennessee	32	800	74
York	South Carolina	11	1162	63
Orange	California	10	1165	62

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

• This section shows the raw counts over time for the U.S., our states, and our counties for four categories:
  • Total confirmed cases: This is the cumulative total of cases reported.
  • New confirmed cases: This is the number of new cases reported on each respective date.
    • For the U.S. and states, a trendline shows the rolling 7-day average of new cases, to help better visualize the peak.
  • Total deaths: This is the cumulative total of deaths reported.
  • New deaths: This is the number of new deaths reported on each respective date.
    • For the U.S. and states, a trendline shows the rolling 7-day average of new deaths, to help better visualize the peak.

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons

• This section is a work in progress. It’s exploring what effect stay-at-home orders have on spread. It’s inherentely messy because some states have localized orders but not orders for their full state and because states implemented the orders at different times.
  • The first plot shows a rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger over time for the group with orders, as more states implement those orders).
    • So far, this view doesn’t show if these orders are “working” or not. Instead, the biggest takeaway from the current plot is that the states that implemented orders are reacting to having worse spread, which is why the case rate is so much higher at the start for them. As a state decides it has a problem and implements an order, it joins the grouping of states with orders and drives the rate up for that group.
    • Over time (if the policies work), what we’d expect is that the line for the group with orders flattens or declines in relation to the no-order group. It also may become moot if all states issue orders.
    • As states start rescending their orders, I’ll put them back into the no-order group, so the no-order group should beging to expand again.
  • The second plot tracks progress of states by the number of days since orders have been in effect. It includes only those states with orders and shows their average new case growth rate (a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates) based on how long it’s been since the order went into effect. Again, the size of the dots show how many states are included in each point – i.e., as you go further right, the dots are smaller because less states are that far past their order.
    • I’m working on how to add a baseline to this chart to compare to states without orders, but that’s challenging because there’s no way to fully align timing.